For Immediate Release October 11, 2012
The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the most recent results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. The poll showed major movement in Proposition 37 while Propositions 30, 32 and 38 tightened, but did not show significant movement.
"This week we've seen the major campaigns intensify both on the air and in the press," said Rob Lapsley, President of the California Business Roundtable. "The voters are already seeing ads that are impacting their decisions, but the media war is really just beginning, so voters haven't seen anything yet."
To view the full results including crosstabs, click here.
To take the online survey, click here.
The major event in the survey was the more than 19% drop in support for Proposition 37. "It appears the 'no' campaign's advertising is starting to pay off," said Dr. Chris Condon, M4 Strategies. "43% of voters surveyed have seen an advertisement for or against this measure and previously the measure was steady and well above 60% support."
"We saw that despite millions of dollars being spent on both sides, there has been very little movement on Proposition 32. It is tightening and starting to look like it will be a battle to Election Day." said Dr. Michael Shires, Pepperdine University. "In addition, the support for Proposition 30 has dropped and is below 50 percent for the first time."
Topline results found:
Proposition 30 - TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.
Proposition 31 - STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.
Proposition 32 - POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 33- AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER'S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 35 - HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition ￼36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 37 - GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 38 - TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 39 - TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 40 - REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.
About the methodology: M4 Strategies conducted an online opinion poll of 830 likely California General Election voters from October 7-10, 2012. Registered voters were identified by self- identification. The margin of error was 3.4%. Participants viewed the "ballot initiative" page and recorded how they are inclined to vote given the current information, including a review of the ballot label and ballot arguments as prepared by the proponents. 782 participants viewed the ballot in English, 49 viewed it in Spanish.
When taking the survey, participants were able, and encouraged, to review all of the qualified ballot initiatives before voting. This instrument design is intended to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day. The survey can be viewed here. To receive future releases of the poll please sign up here.