For Immediate Release September 13, 2012
The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the most recent results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. In addition to polling the initiatives, this week's survey measured voter attitude toward the pension reform bill signed yesterday by Governor Brown and toward the high-speed rail project.
"With just a little less than two months until November's election and two weeks before absentee ballots are mailed out, voters are about to be bombarded by over $200 miillion in television and radio ads by these initiative campaigns" said Rob Lapsley, President, California Business Roundtable.
The poll found support for Proposition 30 holding steady, a slight drop in support for Proposition 32. "This poll shows that as the opposition to Proposition 32 begins its statewide campaign, the measure has lost some support," said Dr. Michael Shires, Pepperdine University. "It seems some of the messages in the advertisements are sticking with voters. However, the 'yes' campaign is yet to launch their campaign which should impact the measure's support."
When surveyed about pension reform legislation, a plurality of voters said it didn't go far enough. "While results found a plurality of voters believe the pension reform legislation does not go far enough, it seems voters view Governor Brown slightly more positively than before the legislation was passed," said Dr. Chris Condon, M4 Strategies. "A plurality of those who say the state is on the right track also say the legislation is balanced, while a plurality of those who say the state is on the wrong track say the legislation doesn't go far enough."
To view full results of the poll, including crosstabs, click here.
To view a sample of the poll, click here.
The survey also asked respondents to identify which resources they relied on when making their decision on how to vote on initiatives and what, if any, advertisement they'd seen for or against measures. To see those results, click here.
Topline results found:
Proposition 30 - TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.
Proposition 31 - STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.
Proposition 32 - POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 33- AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER'S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 35 - HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 37 - GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 38 - TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 39 - TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
Proposition 40 - REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.
Please read the following statements about the high speed rail project and indicate which statement you agree with most:
a) We should keep funding the high speed rail project because it is creating badly needed jobs and because we need an economical and environmentally-friendly way to move people up and down our growing state.
b) We should stop the high speed rail project because the taxpayer price tag has exploded from the advertised $10 billion to nearly $70 billion and we need to pay down our state debt and prioritize funding programs like education.
c) Unsure/don't know
The California Legislature recently passed legislation designed to reform the California public employee pension system by increasing the retirement age for new employees, capping annual pension payouts at $132,120, eliminating system abuses and increasing the amount public employees must contribute to their retirement. Please read the following statements and indicate which one you agree with most:
a) This legislation goes too far because it takes away the rights and promises of basic financial security made to the teachers, police officers, firefighting and nurses who have dedicated their lives to public service.
b) This legislation is a balanced solution because it provides a sensible reform that saves taxpayers $78 billion over the next 30 years and helps get our state and cities on a path of fiscal solvency.
c) This legislation does not go far enough to solve the pension crises and addresses less than 10% of the state's more than $270 billion in unfunded pension costs.
d) Unsure/don't know
About the methodology: M4 strategies conducted an online opinion poll of 802 likely California General Election voters from September 9 – 12, 2012. Registered voters were identified by self- identification. The margin of error was 3.5%. Participants viewed the "ballot initiative" page and recorded how they are inclined to vote given the current information, including a review of the ballot label and ballot arguments as prepared by the proponents. As information becomes available from the Secretary of State it will be included in future surveys, including a Spanish-language version of the ballot.
When taking the survey, participants were able, and encouraged, to review all of the qualified ballot initiatives before voting. This instrument design is intended to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day. The survey can be viewed here. To receive future releases of the poll please sign up here.