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For Immediate Release August 16, 2012

California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University Release Statewide Initiative Survey Results

Voters Support Proposition 38 for the First Time, Proposition 39 Support Remains Strong

The California Business Roundtableand Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released the third round of results in their bi-monthly initiative survey series leading up to the November election. This week's survey shows Proposition 38 receiving a majority of support for the first time and continued strong support for Proposition 39. The survey also found continued support for Propositions 30, 32 and 37.

"There are just over 80 days to go until the November election and voters are starting to learn more about the potential impacts of these measures," said Rob Lapsley, President, California Business Roundtable. "By tracking voter attitudes over time we are able to see how different kinds of information affects the choices voters make and how that changes over time."

To view full results of the poll, including crosstabs, click here.

To view a sample of the poll, click here.

"One of the key findings of this poll is the impact of the language change in the ballot label for Proposition 38. Support for Proposition 38 increased when voters considered the actual ballot label instead of simply the title and summary," said Dr. Chris Condon, M4 Strategies. "The title and summary made clear Proposition 38 increases taxes on those making more than $7,000 per year. However, the ballot label says it increases taxes on a sliding scale. We believe this change is likely responsible for the increase in support."

"Another key finding is the continued strong support for Prop 39 - especially among Democrats and swing voters," said Dr. Michael Shires, Pepperdine University. "While it is quite controversial in the Legislature at the moment, our polls show the single sales factor tax performing strongly. It will likely take a determined campaign to defeat it at the ballot box in November."

Topline results found:

Proposition 30 - TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

YES: 56.7

NO: 37.3

Proposition 31 - STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.

YES: 38.3

NO: 32.9

Proposition 32 - POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 55.2

NO: 33.6

Proposition 33 - AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER'S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 56.6

NO: 29.2

Proposition 34 – DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 38.2

NO: 52.2

Proposition 35 - HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 86.6

NO: 6.4

Proposition 36 – THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 78.1

NO: 13.3

Proposition 37 - GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 65.0

NO: 21.8

Proposition 38 - TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 45.3

NO: 41.9

Proposition 39 - TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.

YES: 57.2

NO: 26.6

Proposition 40 - REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.

YES: 44.5

NO: 18.9

To view full results of the poll, including crosstabs, click here.

To view a sample of the poll, click here.

About the methodology: M4 strategies conducted an online opinion poll of 811 likely California General Election voters (269 Republicans, 361 Democrats, 173 Decline to State voters, and 8 voters of another party) from August 12 to August 15, 2012. Registered voters were identified by self- identification. The margin of error was 3.4%. Participants viewed the "ballot initiative" page and recorded how they are inclined to vote given the current information, including a review of the ballot label and ballot arguments as prepared by the proponents. As information becomes available from the Secretary of State it will be included in future surveys, including a Spanish-language version of the ballot.

When taking the survey, participants were able, and encouraged, to review all of the qualified ballot initiatives before voting. This instrument design is intended to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day.  In addition, the Ballot Mirroring methodology enables survey participants, if they choose, to open and view a replica of the resources made available by the Secretary of State in the state Voter Guide, including the Quick-Reference Guide, Title and Summaries, Analysis by the Legislative Analysis and argument for and against each opposition. The survey can be viewed here. To receive future releases of the poll please sign up here.

 


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