Getting a handle on the future of the Valley's neighborhoods—and then looking for the best options—depends largely upon understanding the underlying demographics. Being nearly builtout horizontally, its days of explosive growth are well behind it. The Valley has faced increasing population pressures over the last several decades. Indeed the San Fernando Valley's recent history has been one of adaptive growth, in-fill construction and redevelopment.
Between 1970 and 2000, the Valley's total population rose some 40% to 1.7 million residents, with the heaviest concentration in the eastern end. To accommodate this increasing population, the number of housing units in the Valley has grown by a comparable amount, increasing by 42%, from 420,000 in 1970 to nearly 600,000 units in 2000. On the surface, it would appear that all is functioning as it should be.
These aggregate numbers do not tell the whole story, however, and the details provide a different set of insights. One potentially troubling trend is that population growth has far outstripped the growth of both employment and housing. The 1970s were a period of moderate population growth for the San Fernando Valley, while the supplies of jobs and housing surged. The 1980s saw housing and employment grow, but population growth outpaced both considerably. The 1990s are almost a perfect mirror of the 1970s with population growing (moderately by the standards of the 1980s), jobs declining, and housing showing negligible growth.
Another trend that has emerged over the past 30 years is a shift in the pattern of growth in the San Fernando Valley. While population growth in the 1970s was concentrated in the periphery, the eastern Valley was actually experiencing population declines. These trends shifted dramatically in the 1990s as growth concentrated in the Valley's central and northeastern areas, as depicted in Figure 9.30
The pattern for new housing development follows a more complex progression. In the early 1970s, new housing construction is spread across the entire western San Fernando Valley, as shown in Figure 10. This reflects the era when the Valley was growing west and land was abundant in these areas.
Over the 1980s, land became scarcer in the western areas of the Valley and the addition of new units was more concentrated in outlying areas like Sylmar, Calabasas, Tujunga, and Woodland Hills. At the same time, there was significant growth in the central communities like North Hollywood, Panorama City, North Hills, and Van Nuys, as developers began to build on smaller, less economically attractive parcels in response to the burgeoning demand, as shown in Figure 11. During this decade, growth in the number of new units in the western Valley fell by one-third while the number of new units in the eastern Valley grew by 15% to 20%.
The 1990s show a period where the majority of new housing growth is concentrated in the extreme periphery of the Valley in communities like Calabasas, Sylmar, and Sunland. There is also significant growth in post-earthquake Northridge and Pacoima, as shown in Figure 12. Overall, the Valley has seen weak housing growth —rising by only 3.8% overall in a period when its population increased by 10.9%.
Northeast and Central Valley Becoming Much More Densely Populated
These new trends all suggest the inevitable urbanization of the Valley, particularly in the northeast sections. New multi-family units are scarce, and the supply of land for traditional singlefamily units has been severely restricted. The result has been to concentrate people into existing housing, increasing density without increasing capacity. This has been most dramatic in the older, lower income, parts of the Valley. The northeast (Pacoima, San Fernando, Arleta, Lakeview Terrace, and Panorama City) and central (Winnetka, Reseda Van Nuys, and Valley Glen) sections are becoming far more densely populated. Figure 14 shows how the population density of the Valley has changed over the last 30 years.
Overall there have also been dramatic increases in population density across the entire region—from an average of 4,200 people per square mile in 1970 to 5,900 people per square mile in 2000. Variation by community has been extraordinary. Some communities like Encino and Sherman Oaks experienced very little change in population concentration, growing by only 7.1% and 7.6% respectively. In contrast, Panorama City almost doubled its population concentration from 7,644 per square mile in 1970 to 13, 520 in 2000, and Lake View Terrace increased by 140% to 6,616. On the western end of the Valley, Calabasas, Canoga Park, and Winnetka experienced similar growth rates, rising more than 60% each. Toluca Lake was the only community to show a decrease in concentration declining by 7%.
Household Size Has Grown, Especially in the Eastern Valley
One of the aspects of these changing dynamics has been an increase in the size of households across the Valley. Figure 13 shows average household size in the San Fernando Valley over the past 30 years. One of the most striking trends exhibited in this figure is the marked decline in average household size in the western Valley and the tremendous growth of household size in the northeastern Valley.
These changes in the average household size between 1970 and 2000 are shown in Figure 15.
The west Valley, once the center of new families, is now aging. Forty-one percent of the population of Woodland Hills was under 20 years of age in 1970, and by 2000 the number had dropped to only 22%. The fraction of the population over sixty- five years of age has risen from less than 5% in 1970 to more than 15% in 2000.
The contrast with the Northeast Valley, with its heavy immigrant population, is stark. In San Fernando the proportion of the population under 20 has risen slightly from 37% to 38%, while the fraction over 65 has declined from 11% to 7%. There has been a surge in the growth of this region, primarily concentrated through the 1980s and 90s, which corresponds to the efforts of families trying to find increasingly scarce housing. As the affordability of the housing stock continues to decline, families are pushed into the lower-rent northeast portion of the Valley, and beyond.
Related Links
Pepperdine University is religiously affiliated with the Churches of Christ.
Connect With Us: