A University of Southern California study into immigrant migration patterns in both Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. suggests that rising poverty in older ethnic suburbs reflects "the force of upward mobility" as newcomers move out of worse inner-city neighborhoods on their way towards a middle-class lifestyle.51 These areas have become what demographer William Frey of the Milken Institute calls "melting pot suburbs", former bedroom communities, where newcomers have replaced older, predominately white populations.
In this sense, the older suburbs of the San Fernando Valley increasingly reflect the diversity of the American population more broadly, and often provide the widest range of housing and employment opportunities. Yet, although the newcomers may be different from the traditional denizens of "America's suburb" their motivations, as discussed above, for coming to the Valley are remarkably similar. Much of this has to do with economics. Throughout much of the late 1990s, the economy of the Valley, measured by job creation, significantly outstripped that of the county.52
Equally important, there were opportunities across a broad array of industries and at differing levels of employment. While the traditional functions of suburban communities have waned in the Valley, other factors have become more important as the economy has diversified. According to analysis by California State University/Northridge economist Shirley Svorny, the Valley boasts a sizable concentration of manufacturing employment and firms, ranging from high-technology electronics to garments.53 Although the Valley is not the preferred locale of the Hollywood elite, it remains the highly chosen locale for the working class people of the entertainment industry and the digital age—the specialized suppliers, lesser known actors, producers, and directors.
Ultimately, for the immigrants, as for earlier migrants to the area, the Valley fundamentally is about middle class aspirations. While Los Angeles south of the Santa Monica Mountains is increasingly a city divided between Westside rich and Eastside poor, the Valley remains predominantly middle class. Only four of Los Angeles' fifty richest people live in the Valley (nineteen live in Beverly Hills). The Valley also has lower unemployment and a relatively small fraction of the city's poor.54
The relative affordability of the Valley is critical to immigrant populations. Although an increasing percentage of residents live in apartments and condominiums, the Valley still epitomizes for many the great middle-class ideal of owning a home in a sunny, safe, comfortable community. At a time when real estate prices on the Westside are out of the range of all, but the very wealthy ($650,000 and above) and the average home in the Conejo Valley (north of the Valley) sells for nearly $400,000, the San Fernando Valley has houses in the relatively modest $200,000 and $300,000 range, contributing to the Valley's above-average levels of home-ownership.55
Housing, too, has been impacted by immigrants, not only in the Valley but throughout Los Angeles County, where housing prices have continued to surge amidst the recession. Today, of the ten most common names for new homebuyers, seven are clearly Latino-Garcia, Rodriguez, Hernandez, Lopez, Gonzalez, Martinez and Perez-and two, Kim and Lee, are Asian. Not surprisingly, the residential market is strong. Apartment vacancy rates have fallen from double digits for most communities in 1996 to under five percent by March 2000.56 Median home sale prices have increased steadily since 1996, and median prices range from $130,000 in the northeast and central portions of the Valley to $665,000 along the southern fringes at the foothills of the Santa Monica Mountains.57 Although the area is approaching complete build-out, new residential construction topped $500 million in 2000.58
Brian Paul, a spokesman for the San Fernando Valley Board of Realtors, claims that much of the impetus for the Valley's strong residential market lies in the immigrant communities. Some, such as the Northeast Valley, he claims, have among the highest rates of home ownership in the region, more than more affluent and still predominately Anglo, Sherman Oaks. "Asians and Latinos are heavily into home ownership," notes realtor Paul:
"...The immigrants are fueling growth here that contradicts most of the negative forces."
This marks a major change in the pattern of growth for the Valley. As late as the 1970s, notes Barbara Zeidman, director of the Los Angeles office of Fannie Mae, predominately white baby boomers drove the residential real estate market. Today it is the immigrants, she notes, who propel the market, and will do so for the foreseeable future.59
Immigrants are critical to the resilience of not only the residential but the commercial portions of the Valley economy, particularly the retail sector. Rents in the heavily Latinodominated districts around Van Nuys Boulevard, for example, have grown over the past five years from $1.25 psf - $1.75 psf to as high as $3.00 psf. Developer Jose Legaspi points out that these rents can be as much as fifty percent higher than in predominately Anglo areas such as Sherman Oaks or Studio City.
Legaspi, who has been active in developments in communities such as Arleta and Panorama City, suggests that much of the economic future in older suburbs such as in the San Fernando Valley lies with the buying power of immigrants.
"I don't think anyone realizes that the Latino and Asian markets are now predominately suburban. You can't stick three million Latinos into one neighborhood. The pressures are too great," Legaspi, a native of Zacatecas, Mexico suggests. "Back in the 1980s, these areas had lots of vacancies. Now it's getting hard to assemble space for these kinds of developments."
Similarly, much of the Valley's present - and future - economic vitality lies with the newcomers. Overall immigrant populations, along with their offspring, are one of the surest growth markets in early 21st Century America. Immigrants, in the San Fernando Valley, as elsewhere, tend to be younger, have more children and are more likely to spend locally for goods and services. Latino and Asian buying power, according to a recent study by the Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia, is growing at roughly twice the rate for the rest of the population. Today, fully twenty five percent of buying power in California, according to the study, lies within these two groups, which are growing rapidly throughout the Valley. Simply defined, buying power is the total personal (after-tax) income that residents have to spend on goods and services—that is, the disposable personal income of the residents of a specified geographic area. 61
Finally, there are the contributions of the newcomers to the entrepreneurial health of the economy. Several of the fastest growing ethnic groups in the Valley - notably Russian Jews, Koreans, Iranians and Armenians - boast among the highest rates of entrepreneurship in Southern California.62 At the same time, many of the newcomers, including Vietnamese and Latinos, make up the bulk of the industrial workforce, from aerospace subcontracting to garments and other diversified manufacturing.
Los Angeles is the number one import/export port in the United States; there is $146 billion of trading activity in the Los Angeles customs district.
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